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02/09/2012 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stephen Curry poured in 36 points, including six treys, as Golden State downed slumping Denver, 109-101, at Pepsi Center.
Klay Thompson added 19 points off the bench, Dorell Wright had 15 points and Monta Ellis, one game after scoring a career-best 48 points, donated 14 points on 6-of-14 shooting. David Lee also reached double figures with 12 points and eight rebounds for Golden State, which snapped a two-game skid.
Aaron Afflalo led the way for the home team with 26 points, while Nene added 15 points and Ty Lawson chipped in with 11 points and 10 rebounds. Al Harrington also scored 11 and Kenneth Faried posted eight points and 10 rebounds for the Nuggets, who have dropped five in a row with four of those coming at home.
The Nuggets have Afflalo and Nene back in the fold from injuries, but are still missing leading scorer Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov and Corey Brewer.
The two teams traded blows in the first quarter with Curry's three pulling the visitors within 28-27 after one period. Golden State started the second quarter strong, taking a lead as large as 39-31 on the heels on a Rush three and Thompson jumper.
The Nuggets responded with the next eight points capped by Harrington's trey for a one-point advantage, and the score stayed close for the remainder of the half. Nene's slam in the closing seconds gave the home team a 51-47 margin at halftime.
Denver lost control of the game in the third as Golden State scored at will and held Denver in check. Curry and Wright drained back-to-back threes and Ellis connected on a tough fadeaway to cap eight straight points for a 61-53 game. After an Afflalo trey, Golden State scored the next 10 points, putting a stamp on an 18-3 scoring stretch with Curry's three-pointer for a 71-56 lead.
Afflalo was the only Nugget to score for nearly six minutes, but Denver hung around with Lawson's layup drawing the Nuggets within 71-63. The Denver defense, however, had no answer for the Warriors, who pushed out to an 80-65 lead on Nate Robinson's fadeaway jumper nearing the one-minute mark. Golden State took an 84-71 lead into the fourth period.
It didn't get better from there for the Nuggets. Lee rattled off a pair of buckets at one point for a 98-80 game, and Denver never seriously threatened throughout the final stanza.
Game Notes
Golden State had lost 10 of the last 12 matchups with Denver prior to Thursday's win...The Warriors also snapped a six-game skid in Denver....Denver made 43.5 percent of its shots, while Golden State made 51.9 percent of its attempts and 13 three-pointers....Afflalo was 5-of-8 from long distance, while the rest of the Nuggets were 4-of-16.
<< Rockets use strong bench effort to down Suns
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luis Scola scored 16 points and the Rockets,
aided by a strong bench effort, downed the Suns, 96-89, on Thursday.
All five Houston bench players who entered the game reached double figures,
led by Patric
<< Canucks keep Wild reeling
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henrik Sedin played two days after taking a
puck off his ankle and scored a goal, and the Vancouver Canucks rolled to a
5-2 win over the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night.
Daniel Sedin had a goal and an a
<< Indiana pulls away from Illinois
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cody Zeller dropped a game-high 22 points
to lead four Hoosiers in double figures as Indiana rolled past Illinois,
84-71, at Assembly Hall on Thursday.
Christian Watford, Victor Oladipo, and Jorda
<< Spezza lifts Ottawa over Nashville
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Spezza netted two goals and added an
assist, leading the Ottawa Senators to a 4-3 win over the Nashville Predators
at Scotiabank Place.
Chris Phillips -- playing in his 1,000th NHL game -- contribu
No. 4 Stanford handles USC >>
Stanford, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike netted a game-high 22 points
and pulled down eight rebounds as No. 4 Stanford took care of business with a
69-52 win over USC on Thursday.
Chiney Ogwumike finished with 21 points, 12 reb
Coyotes edge Flames on Doan's OT winner >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shane Doan scored the game-winner in overtime
to give the Phoenix Coyotes a 2-1 victory over the Calgary Flames on Thursday.
Taylor Pyatt scored in regulation for the Coyotes, who extended their season-
high
Illinois tops Ohio State on Moore's basket >>
Champaign, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amber Moore's bucket with two seconds
remaining gave Illinois a 66-65 victory over No. 10 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes went ahead by one on Tayler Hill's driving layup with 19 seconds
to play, but Moore
Evans, Cousins lead Kings past Thunder >>
Sacramento, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyreke Evans scored 22 points, DeMarcus
Cousins added 19 and the Kings made enough free throws down the stretch to
take down the Thunder, 106-101.
Marcus Thornton finished with 15 points, includi
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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