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12/22/2008 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Pogge got the win in his NHL debut and the line of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan and Nik Antropov accounted for nine points, as the suddenly high-powered Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Atlanta Thrashers by a 6-2 final at Philips Arena.
Pogge, who was recalled from Toronto's AHL affiliate on Sunday, got the start between the pipes with first-stringer Vesa Toskala dealing with a groin pull. A third-round choice in the 2004 NHL Draft, Pogge needed just 19 saves to get the victory but made several key stops with the game still in doubt.
Stajan scored twice and assisted on another, Ponikarovsky had a goal and two helpers and Antropov logged three assists for Toronto, which has won five of its last six overall and is coming off an impressive 7-3 win against Pittsburgh Saturday at the Igloo.
Jeremy Williams and Dominic Moore each notched a goal and an assist, with Toronto capping a three-game road trip, 2-1, Monday. The Leafs are now 8-8-2 as the visitor this season.
Colby Armstrong and Todd White had the goals for the Thrashers, who had won two of their last three games coming in but are just 3-8-2 in their last 13 games overall.
Kari Lehtonen was peppered with 37 shots in taking the loss, having made his first appearance in almost two months on Saturday in a win against Tampa Bay. He had been battling a back injury and hadn't played a game since October 30.
Atlanta has also lost eight of its last nine home tests and wrapped a three- game homestand, 1-2, Monday. The Thrashers are just 6-9-2 as the host this year.
Toronto scored twice in the first 20 minutes for the early lead and Pogge not only notched his first NHL save but was perfect over that stretch with six stops.
Ponikarovsky scored just 59 seconds into the game off his own rebound in front and the Leafs manufactured a second score with 9:17 to play in the period. Jason Blake threw it down low into the left corner where Moore corralled the puck behind the net, re-directing a pass out in front for Williams, who one- timed the disc into the top-right corner of the net.
Pogge and Lehtonen held their opposites off the scoreboard for most of the second until Toronto made it a 3-0 affair with 2:24 left.
The Leafs broke out of their own zone on a 3-on-2 with Ponikarovsky gaining the zone along the left boards before skating across the high slot and sending a backhand pass to Antropov at the right circle. Antropov accepted the puck and immediately directed it back across to a cutting Stajan inside the opposite circle and a swipe of the stick sent it past Lehtonen.
Atlanta was able to solve the 22-year-old Pogge, though, just before the close of the frame. Jason Williams sent a long outlet pass to Armstrong along the right boards. Armstrong skated into the zone and let rip a slapper that beat Pogge over the left shoulder as the clock wound under 10 seconds.
An offensive zone power-play draw had the puck scoot back to Pavel Kubina for a hard shot from the left point and Moore was able to put back the rebound with a backhander under the left pad of Lehtonen to restore Toronto's three- goal advantage just past the midway point of the third.
Viktor Kozlov cut into the Toronto zone and wheeled around for a pass just inside the right circle to White slicing from the left toward the net and he finished it off with a backhander past Pogge to make it 4-2 with 5:46 left.
However, the Leafs countered just over 1 1/2 minutes later as John Mitchell cut down the left side and drew two defenders before sending a blind, backhand pass to Niklas Hagman in front for a bang-bang score.
Atlanta pulled Lehtonen with 1:39 to play and the Leafs had the puck in the net shortly thereafter via Stajan for the 6-2 final.
Game Notes
Atlanta logged a 6-3 victory in Toronto on November 25...Toronto has won three straight and eight of its last 10 in Atlanta...The Maple Leafs scored 18 goals on their three-game road trip.
<< No. 15 Ohio State rolls past UNC-Asheville
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - B.J. Mullens posted a career-high 19 points
with a game-high eight rebounds as 15th-ranked Ohio State cruised by UNC-
Asheville, 83-59.
Evan Turner posted 17 points and dished out four assists for
<< Johnson, Moore help Boilermakers get past IPFW
West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - JaJuan Johnson finished with 21 points
and nine rebounds to lead 10th-ranked Purdue to a 70-55 win over IPFW at
Mackey Arena.
E'Twaun Moore added 19 points and six boards for the Boilermakers (1
<< Second-half surge powers No. 6 Wake Forest over ECU
Greenville, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Al-Farouq Aminu had 21 points, 12 rebounds
and five assists, leading sixth-ranked Wake Forest in a 95-54 rout of East
Carolina.
Chas McFarland totaled 14 points on 7-of-9 shooting from the field and gr
<< No. 17 Syracuse crushes Coppin State
Syracuse, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Rautins scored 29 points despite not
attempting a two-point shot, and the 17th-ranked Syracuse Orange posted an 82-
71 victory over the visiting Coppin State Eagles.
Rautins shot 9-of-16 from three-p
No. 18 Wildcats survive Midshipmen >>
Villanova, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dante Cunningham scored 24 points and hauled
in 10 rebounds to lead No. 18 Villanova to a 78-68 triumph over Navy.
Scottie Reynolds poured in 23 points for the Wildcats (11-1), who have won
three straig
Pens' Crosby snaps drought with OT winner over Buffalo >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sidney Crosby's deflection goal 43 seconds into
overtime sent Pittsburgh over Buffalo, 4-3, at HSBC Arena.
Early in the extra session, Alex Goligoski gained control of the puck in the
left circle and slipped
Flyers RW Upshall out at least 10 days >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Flyers right wing Scottie
Upshall will miss at least 10 and up to 14 days after suffering a sprained
right knee.
Upshall left Sunday's 3-2 shootout loss to the Devils late in the
Seeing 20/20: Sims leads Michigan over Florida Gulf Coast >>
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeShawn Sims scored 20 points and hauled down
as many rebounds to lead the 24th-ranked Michigan Wolverines past Florida Gulf
Coast, 76-59.
Kelvin Grady posted 14 points and Stu Douglass 12 for Michigan (9-
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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